圣路易斯联储：美国7月失业率降至4.1%，非农就业减少2.3万个岗位
Flash Report: Unemployment, Payrolls Both Drop in July
圣路易斯联储经济分析称，美国失业率从6月的4.2%降至7月的4.1%，精确值从4.189%降至4.090%；非农就业减少2.3万个岗位，低于预期。6月就业增幅下修3.7万个至2万个，5月增幅下修6.6万个至6.3万个。分析指出，劳动力参与率下降快于家庭调查就业人数，是失业率回落的机械原因；多项劳动力市场指标在2026年呈下降趋势，但多数指标从历史角度看仍处于健康水平。
报告呈现7月失业率小幅下降、非农就业减少及前月就业增幅下修，反映劳动力市场指标出现走弱信号。
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The U.S. unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in June to 4.1% in July, a level that remains in line with its 12-month average. More precise data show the rate dropped from 4.189% to 4.090%.
- From an employment flows perspective, July’s modest decline in unemployment was driven primarily by fewer people leaving or losing their jobs relative to the June change.
- Nonfarm payroll employment contracted in July—against expectations—by 23,000 jobs.
July 2026
4.090%
Precise Rate
Unemployment again ticked down in July, with the headline rate coming in at 4.1%, its lowest level since June 2025. (See the FRED chart above.) The July rate was near its average over the past 12 months.
Total nonfarm payrolls shed an estimated 23,000 jobs in July, accompanied by downward revisions to prior months. June’s gain was revised lower by 37,000 jobs (from 57,000 to 20,000), and May’s gain was revised lower by 66,000 jobs (from 129,000 to 63,000).
Key labor market indicators—payroll employment growth, employment-to-population ratio and the labor force participation rate—have trended downward in 2026, suggesting a potential weakening of the overall labor market. Mechanically, the unemployment rate fell in July because participation in the labor force declined faster than employment measured in the household survey component of the jobs report.Because unemployment is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people into the total labor force (those either employed or actively looking for work), if more people stop looking for work than lose their jobs, the rate will fall, all else being equal. Nevertheless, most labor market indicators have remained healthy from a historical perspective.
Next, the analysis takes a deeper look at how estimated flows into and out of unemployment during July affected the overall unemployment rate.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS
- The decline from June in the unrounded unemployment rate was nearly identical to the 0.1 percentage point decrease in the headline rate.
- A drop in the number of people leaving or losing their jobs, compared with this dynamic’s contribution in June, was the main factor behind the change in unemployment.
| Average Monthly Change in Unemployment Rate (Percentage Points) |
People Losing or Leaving Their Jobs and Becoming Unemployed |
Unemployed People Finding Jobs |
People Previously Not in the Labor Force Who Are Now Seeking Work |
Unemployed Workers Leaving the Labor Force (e.g. Discouraged Workers) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | -0.10 | +0.74 | -0.99 | +1.15 | -1.01 |
| Last 3 Months | -0.08 | +0.85 | -1.04 | +1.10 | -1.01 |
| Last 12 Months | -0.03 | +0.91 | -1.06 | +1.12 | -1.01 |
| SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics and St. Louis Fed Research staff’s calculations. | |||||
| NOTES: Average changes over the last 12 months exclude October and November, for which data were unavailable. Data are seasonally adjusted. The overall change is based on the precise unemployment rate for these periods; for example, the unemployment rates were 4.0901% in July and 4.1888% in June. The flow components into and out of unemployment add up to the change in unemployment with a negligible residual. See Maximiliano Dvorkin and Serdar Ozkan’s St. Louis Fed On the Economy blog post “The Recent Ins and Outs of Unemployment: Using Flows to Study Labor Market Dynamics” for more information about this method. | |||||
In contrast to the labor market indicators discussed above, unemployment flow dynamics overall showed no sign for concern. Job separations—people losing or leaving employment—contributed less to the change in unemployment in July than they did during June. This difference accounted for most of the decline in July’s unemployment rate. The rate of job separations and the rate of people finding jobs—another unemployment flow component—were below their recent averages. (See the table above.)
Note
- Because unemployment is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people into the total labor force (those either employed or actively looking for work), if more people stop looking for work than lose their jobs, the rate will fall, all else being equal.
来源：圣路易斯联储 · 经济分析 · stlouisfed.org