达拉斯联储预测德州2026年就业岗位将增长2.0%，年底就业人数达1,460万
Texas Employment Forecast
达拉斯联储德州就业预测显示，2026年德州就业岗位预计增长2.0%，80%置信区间为1.5%至2.5%，全年将增加286,000个岗位，12月就业人数预计为1,460万。德州6月就业年化增长3.5%，增加42,100个岗位；5月就业增长修订为1.3%。截至6月的三个月，德州领先指数持平。
材料提供德州就业增长预测及6月就业变化，并说明德州领先指数近三个月持平。
July 17, 2026
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent. Based on an average of four models that include projected U.S. gross domestic product, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes, the forecast implies 286,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2026 will be 14.6 million (Chart 1).
Texas employment grew an annualized 3.5 percent in June, adding 42,100 jobs. Meanwhile, May employment growth was revised up to 1.3 percent.
“Texas employment growth accelerated in June, pushing year-to-date job growth to 1.9 percent—close to its long-run average of 2 percent. Texas job growth has been surprisingly strong in light of labor supply constraints. The data center buildout and relatively high oil prices continue to provide a boost to state economic activity and job growth,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist.
“Job gains in June were exceptionally strong in professional business services, driven by robust momentum in the staffing sector, as temporary help employment has been rising since March. Additionally, leisure and hospitality registered strong job gains, likely due to World Cup-related activity. Construction and trade and transportation also logged employment increases. In contrast, education and health services and government registered job losses. Among major Texas metros, Austin posted the fastest growth at 5.8 percent, followed by Fort Worth at 3.9 percent, Dallas at 3.7 percent and Houston at 2.7 percent, while San Antonio reported a decline of 3.1 percent,” he added.
The Texas Leading Index was flat over the three months ending in June, with mixed contributions across components (Chart 2). The index was boosted by increases in the help-wanted index, the real oil price and well permits, along with decreases in new unemployment claims. Meanwhile, declines in average weekly hours, the Texas stock index and the U.S. leading index, along with increases in the Texas value of the dollar, contributed negatively to the overall index.
Next release: August 21
Methodology
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Employment Forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.
The forecast incorporates early benchmarked Texas employment data and is based on the average of four models. Three models are vector autoregressions for which Texas payroll employment is regressed on the lags of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, the U.S. leading index and the Texas Leading Index. The fourth model is an autoregressive distributed lag model with regression of payroll employment on lags of payroll employment, current and lagged values of U.S. GDP growth and WTI oil prices, and Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations through March 2023. Forecasts of Texas payroll employment from this model also use forecasts of U.S. GDP growth from Blue Chip Economic Indicators and WTI oil price futures as inputs. All models include four COVID-19 dummy variables (March–June 2020).
Learn more about the Texas Employment Forecast.
Contact Information
For more information about the Texas Employment Forecast, contact Luis Torres at luis.torres@dal.frb.org.
来源：达拉斯联储 · 经济更新 · dallasfed.org