达拉斯联储发布能源调查更新：受访企业谈霍尔木兹海峡、油气产量与就业预期
Dallas Fed Energy Survey: Update released in response to recent global oil market developments
达拉斯联储公布第一季度能源调查更新，汇总企业高管对近期全球石油市场变化的看法。调查于2026年4月15日至20日进行，共有120家能源企业回复，其中78家为勘探与生产企业、42家为油田服务企业；39%的受访者预计霍尔木兹海峡航运在2026年8月前恢复正常，70%预计美国石油产量将于2026年因伊朗战争而增加。
调查呈现能源企业对霍尔木兹海峡航运、海湾停产恢复及美国产量和就业变化的预期，可用于了解行业判断及其分布。
News Releases
April 23, 2026
In response to recent developments in the global oil market, the Dallas Fed surveyed energy executives and issued an update to the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Respondents were asked to answer a set of six questions and were also able to provide comments.
Key takeaways:
- Executives were asked when they expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels. The most selected response was by August 2026, chosen by 39 percent of executives. Twenty-six percent of respondents expect normalization by November 2026, while 20 percent anticipate an earlier recovery, by May 2026. Fourteen percent of executives expect traffic to return to normal levels later than November 2026.
- Most executives believe future disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are likely. Forty-eight percent of respondents believe it is "very likely" that geopolitical events will disrupt traffic again within the next five years, while 38 percent view it as "somewhat likely." Only 14 percent of executives consider future disruptions "unlikely."
- Executives were also asked what share of shut-in production in the Persian Gulf they expect will return eventually. Thirty-two percent of executives selected “100%,” and another 32 percent selected “More than 90% but less than 100%.” Twenty percent expect “More than 80% but not more than 90%.” The remaining 15 percent of executives expect “80% or less.”
- Seventy percent of respondents expect U.S. oil production to increase in 2026 in response to the Iran war. The most selected response, chosen by 43 percent of respondents, was a modest increase of “more than 0 but not more than 0.25 mb/d.” Seventeen percent selected “More than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 mb/d,” and 10 percent selected higher amounts than that. The remaining 30 percent chose “no change.”
- More than three-quarters of executives expect U.S. oil production to increase in 2027 in response to the Iran war. The most selected response was “more than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 mb/d,” selected by 32 percent of respondents, followed by “more than 0 but not more than 0.25 mb/d,” which was chosen by 26 percent. Roughly 18 percent expect U.S. production in 2027 to grow by an amount larger than 0.50 mb/d in response to the Iran war. The remaining 24 percent selected “no change.”
- 59 percent of executives expect employment at their firms to remain the same from December 2025 to December 2026. The next most selected response was “increase slightly,” chosen by 28 percent of executives. Four percent chose “increase significantly,” while 6 percent selected “decrease slightly” and 2 percent chose “decrease significantly.”
- Most executives expect shipping costs from the Persian Gulf to increase after the military conflict ends. The most selected response in dollars per barrel was "more than $2 but not more than $4" (36 percent of respondents).
The survey samples oil and gas companies headquartered in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, which includes Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana. Many have national and global operations.
Data were collected April 15–20, 2026, and 120 energy firms responded. Of the respondents, 78 were exploration and production firms, and 42 were oilfield services firms.
来源：达拉斯联储 · 新闻发布 · dallasfed.org