达拉斯联储研究：近岸外包至墨西哥尚未充分实现
Dallas Fed’s Global Institute: Nearshoring to Mexico has yet to fully materialize
达拉斯联储一项研究发现，近岸外包带来的大规模外资迁入墨西哥尚未实现，新增外国直接投资自2022年以来反而下降，目前处于十年低位。墨西哥“其他商业服务”出口占GDP比重从2017年的0.25%升至2024年年中0.5%，显示近岸外包活动有温和迹象；出口目的地多元化略有恶化，83.1%的出口流向美国。
News Releases
December 06, 2024
DALLAS—Despite the buzz surrounding the potential nearshoring of more multinational manufacturing into Mexico, recent data has yet to show that large-scale foreign capital is heading into the country, according to a new study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The research was conducted as part of the Dallas Fed’s newly launched Global Institute, which will draw on the Dallas Fed's strong legacy of international research and the Eleventh District’s special location to lead policy-related research on global trade, international capital flows and migration, with a particular focus on the U.S.–Mexico relationship.
The Global Institute aims to become a resource for the Federal Reserve System and the public to understand the changing and complex global economy and its implications for U.S. monetary policy.
The study was authored by Enrique Martínez García, assistant vice president at the Dallas Fed and deputy director of the Global Institute; Luis Torres, senior business economist at the Dallas Fed; and Manuel Sánchez, a Mexican economist and former deputy governor of Banco de México.
Researchers looked at Mexico’s international economic accounts, specifically the foreign direct investment (FDI) portion, to gauge whether production capacity has expanded as a result of nearshoring.
New FDI inflows have not surged, as might be expected with more nearshoring activity, but have actually declined since 2022, and much of Mexico’s investment growth has come from domestic sources and reinvested earnings of foreign-owned firms, according to the study.
“Nearshoring to Mexico remains an ambition,” the authors wrote. “Domestic investment and reinvested earnings from foreign-owned firms have increased, but large-scale foreign capital relocation has yet to materialize.”
Other key findings include:
- While new FDI surged immediately following the pandemic-era recession, it is now at a 10-year low.
- Shelter companies and service providers are playing a larger role in nearshoring by offering asset leasing and management solutions without direct investment. Mexico’s service exports that fall under “other business services,” which capture some of those alternative models of nearshoring,have grown slightly from 0.25 percent of GDP in 2017 to 0.5 percent in mid-2024, reflecting moderate evidence of nearshoring activity.
- Mexico’s pandemic-era export growth has moderated since 2022, and export-destination diversification has deteriorated slightly, with 83.1 percent of exports now directed to the U.S. That’s up from about 81.4 percent two years ago.
- Mexico’s export growth to the U.S. is largely driven by trade diversion from China, but there is some evidence of increasing integration of Chinese inputs into Mexico’s exports and logistics.
Upcoming research topics from the Global Institute will cover trade relations under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), issues on international monetary policy spillovers and cross-border payments effects on financial stability.
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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org
来源：达拉斯联储 · 新闻发布 · dallasfed.org