Macro & the Fed
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Where is the Stock Market Volatility?Waller, The Data Version of Godzilla versus Kong: FRED Takes on AIWhy Does Per Capita Income Differ So Greatly across the World?The Term Spread As Recession Predictor, Post-2024The US Economy “Is Running Hot,” Lots of Consumer Spending Growth, Lots of Inflation. The Bond Market Sees it TooCook, The Dual Mandate in Rural AmericaBusiness Cycle Indicators: Real GDP, Personal Income Trajectory Revised UpNot Even the Massive Changes of Methodology Can Get PCE Inflation Back into the BottleU.S. electricity use for electric vehicles increasing at a slower pace in 2026Holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion as inflation boosts growthPersonal Income and Outlays, August 2026GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025Animal Spirits: Will Higher Rates Kill the Stock MarketTreasury Yields Keep Rising. Can the Economy Keep Up?Strategic Petroleum Reserves through 9/18Turnover in the Labor Market Calms Down, after Chaotic ChurnWaller, Payments in the Age of AI AgentsDiesel up 67.5% Relative to Pre-WarBarr, Economic Conditions and Monetary PolicyConfidence Slips (Way) Below ConsensusA Brutal Bond MarketBowman, Opening RemarksSan Antonio Economic IndicatorsTomorrow’s PCE Inflation Report May Boost Fed Hike BetsBanking Analytics: U.S. Banking Industry Performance in Q2Anthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO ProspectusYields Up (Again), Yield Curve Steepening← PreviousNext →